Six Reasons for GameCube Success...or Failure
Written By: Jared Black

Of course, not everything is looking great for Nintendo right now. In fact, there are some strong arguments that suggest Nintendo's GameCube may ultimately fail. These arguments include…

1) The Competition Is Too Strong.

In Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo is up against two of the biggest companies in the world. While Nintendo has billions of dollars in assets, these two companies each have hundreds of billions of dollars in assets. A major part of any system's success is its marketing, and if necessary Microsoft and Sony have much more money to pour into marketing than Nintendo does.

Not only that, but Sega is much stronger (in North America at least) than they were with the Saturn. Sega will no doubt remain fairly competitive thanks to the unique advantages (notably online play out of the box) the Dreamcast presents, and since Sega isn't really pushing a "set-top" box this could eat into Nintendo's market more than Sony's or Microsoft's.

Finally, while the PS2 launch has been plagued with problems (manufacturing problems, lame advertising, ho-hum lineup), it was still a rousing success.  With better games on the way in 2001, the PS2 will be a major player in this console war.

2) Nintendo's Not Mature Enough

Despite efforts to reshape their image, Nintendo is still primarily aiming their games at a target age group much younger than that targeted by Sega, Sony and Microsoft. Recently Nintendo has started targeting an older demographic (through advertising on WWF programs, more mature games, a "mature" Mario, etc.), but they've made it clear that they aren't going to stop making "kiddy" games as well. Not only that, but the GameCube itself has widely been criticized as looking like something Fisher Price would manufacture. A recent survey by the IDSA suggests that 87% of the people who purchase console games are 18 years or older. Will these changes be enough to lure in the people who spend the most on video games?

3) Development Woes

It's clear that the GameCube will be the second-most powerful machine in the upcoming console war, but in the end it won't be able to match the power Microsoft's Xbox will have. Developers are generally tech-geeks, and love to play on the "latest and greatest" hardware available. Not only that, but there have been recent rumblings that the hardware is harder to develop for than originally thought. Until Nintendo's Developer Conference (which is scheduled for sometime in January), third parties won't have an accurate idea of what the GameCube is capable of doing. How will this affect third-party development on the GameCube?

4) Unproven Second Parties

We all know that Rare is good, but beyond that the second parties are still a bit shaky. Nintendo is entrusting its beloved Metroid series in Retro Studios, a company that has never even developed a game. In addition to this, Nintendo is also relying heavily on Retro (along with Left Field) for its sports lineup. While Kobe Bryant's Basketball was a good game, it certainly wasn't in the same league as NBA Live. And while the games Silicon Knights have developed have thus far been good games (and fitting well into Nintendo's move towards more mature games), they've yet to establish themselves as a top-flight development company. Blood Omen: Legacy of Kain was certainly good, but most don't consider it a classic.

In addition, even almighty Rare has been in a bit of a downturn of late. Diddy Kong Racing was good, but accused by many of being just another Mario Kart clone. Jet Force Gemini was an ok game, but certainly not a classic. Donkey Kong 64 was, again, a good game…but did nothing "revolutionary" like the SNES version did and therefore disappointed many. In fact, most critics consider Rocket: Robot on Wheels, which released with virtually no fanfare, to be the better platformer of 1999. Banjo-Tooie, while a great game, has been criticized (and rightly so) for some horrible framerate problems. Finally, no one will deny the greatness of Perfect Dark, but it also featured horrible framerate problems. Of course, for any other company this would be an excellent lineup, but this is Rare we're talking about. Can Rare recapture that Goldeneye magic?

5) Internal Strife

Blame mistranslation all you want, but Nintendo as a whole really doesn't know whether it wants to emphasize its handheld business or its console business. NOA and NCL constantly make conflicting statements, such as one division claiming the GBA is the future while another claims the GameCube is. In addition to this, both divisions of Nintendo also seem to be split over how important online play will be in this console war. NOA seems wholeheartedly for online play and sees it as very important, while NCL seems hesitant to include it in its plans. Add to this the recent upheaval in Europe (Nintendo recently dumped longtime distributor THE Games), and it's clear that there's confusion within Nintendo right now. In order to be successful, Nintendo needs to establish clear goals and then work towards them.

6) Lack of Extras

While the trend seems to be going towards all-in-one boxes, Nintendo is delivering a pure game machine in the GameCube. How much this will hurt hardware sales remains to be seen, but there's no doubt that anyone who needs a DVD player will be attracted by the built-in movie capabilities that the PS2 (and possibly Xbox) offer.

As with any impending console launch, there are still more questions than answers regarding the GameCube. It's obvious though that Nintendo still has a lot of work to do in order to have a successful October 2001 launch.